Ford boss Jim Farley has told US media the market share of electric vehicles (EV) in North America could be cut in half following the end of federal incentives on September 30.
The US$7500 ($A11,375) tax credit helped EV and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales jump by 22 per cent in the US last year, and also helped Tesla set record sales in the last quarter of 2025 (July-September).
The US government has also stopped fining car manufacturers for breaching emissions laws, taking away a major revenue stream for Tesla – and enabling the reintroduction of the V8 Hemi engine in Ram pickup trucks.
According to CarScoops, Ford’s global chief believes EV sales will take a significant hit in the wake of the changes.
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“I think it’s going to be a vibrant industry, but it’s going to be smaller, way smaller than we thought, especially with the policy change in the tailpipe emissions, plus the consumer incentive going away,” Mr Farley said.
“We’re going to find out in a month. I wouldn’t be surprised [if] EV sales in the US go down to five per cent.”
That’s half of the record market share that EVs achieved in the last quarter, when EVs accounted for 10 per cent of all new vehicle sales in the US – admittedly driven by the axing of the tax credit at the end of September.
Australia’s EV market share reached a record 11.3 per cent in September, pushing the year-to-date figure to 8.1 per cent – up from 7.4 per cent in 2024.
In the first half of 2025 there were two Fords among the top 10 best-selling EVs in the US, with the Mustang Mach-E large SUV placing fourth with 21,785 sales and the F-150 Lightning pickup (which is not sold by Ford in Australia) placing eighth behind Tesla’s Cybertruck.
As in Australia, the Tesla Model Y medium SUV and Model 3 mid-size sedan filled the top two spots, respectively.
While it recently announced a Ford Ranger-sized electric pickup, Ford has lost billions on EVs, including a US$1.3 billion ($A1.9bn) loss in the second quarter of 2025, a $US849 million ($A1.3bn) loss in the first quarter of 2025, and a US$5.1 billion ($A7.7bn) loss in 2024.
“Customers are not interested in the $75,000 electric vehicle,” Mr Farley told CarScoops.
“They find them interesting. They’re fast, they’re efficient, you don’t go to the gas station, but they’re expensive.”
The US car giant is far from alone with this view, as a raft of automakers pull back on their previous EV sales targets amid the impact of changing regulations and import tariffs in the US and Europe.
Slower than expected EV adoption has also led to repeated and costly product strategy revisions for auto brands around the world, with Ford now having to plan how to make use of excess EV and EV battery production capacity.
“We’ll fill them, but it will be more stress, because we had a four-year predictable policy. Now the policy changed… We all have to make adjustments, and it’s going to be good for the country, I believe, but it will be one more stress.”
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