The pay package relies on $8.5T in value, $400B EBITDA, and 1M Robotaxis

Love him or hate him, Elon Musk has built a reputation for sometimes making the impossible seem inevitable. From electric cars dominating global markets to rockets that land themselves with pinpoint precision, his record is extraordinary. Yet, even for someone with those successes, the 2025 CEO Performance Award just presented by Tesla’s board represents a challenge of unprecedented scale.

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The plan could grant Musk over 423 million shares and a total compensation package of around $1 trillion. Of course, that only happens if Tesla hits some staggering milestones. The award is split into 12 tranches, each unlocking as Tesla hits specific market capitalization targets.

According to the SEC filing detailing the package, it goes as follows: the first tranche at $2 trillion, nine more at $500 billion increments, and the final two at $1 trillion each, culminating in a mind-bending $8.5 trillion valuation by 2035. Right now, Tesla is worth a little over $1 trillion.

A Trillion-Dollar Tightrope

Market cap is only a small piece of the story, though. Musk must also achieve at least $400 billion in sustained annual adjusted EBITDA and hit operational targets that push Tesla into uncharted waters. Among them: putting 1 million fully autonomous Robotaxis into commercial service and delivering 1 million Optimus AI bots.

Market cap is only a small piece of the story. Musk must also deliver at least $400 billion in sustained annual adjusted EBITDA, which is finance-speak for the company’s earnings from its core business before accounting for things like taxes, interest, or non-cash costs such as depreciation.

On top of that, he faces operational goals that push the company into uncharted territory, such as putting 1 million fully autonomous Robotaxis into commercial service and delivering another 1 million Optimus AI robots.

Today, Robotaxi still requires a safety driver in the car, so these targets aren’t theoretical; they demand breakthroughs in autonomy, scaling, and execution. It’s a package that forces a hard look at Musk’s history. He’s undeniably a visionary, but he’s often over-promised and under-delivered. He’s often been late, sometimes very late, about tech promises. That’s to say nothing of his political engagement.

Betting His Legacy On Autonomy

At the same time, if he can actually achieve everything laid out in this compensation package, it’ll be hard to argue that he’s not the defining innovator of our era. That said, the board has set up this award in a way that Musk can’t simply hit the goals and cash out.

He must remain at Tesla for the next 7.5 to 10 years. The goals must be met by 2035. Tesla said it “believes that Mr Musk’s vision and leadership are critical to nailing that execution”.

At this point, all of Musk’s promises of autonomy are all the more intriguing. His salary and perhaps his legacy rely on him being right about Tesla leading the autonomy charge sooner rather than later.