The Australian automotive industry has highlighted the challenges involved in meeting the federal government’s new 2035 climate change target, which will require half of all new cars sold to be electric vehicles (EVs) within the next decade.
The Climate Change Authority’s ‘2035 Targets Advice’ has called for a CO2 emissions reduction of between 62 and 70 per cent from 2005 levels over the next 10 years.
To meet the lower end of that ambitious reduction range, more than 20 times the number of electric passenger vehicles will need to be on the road than there are today – more than five million EVs that would otherwise have been petrol and diesel vehicles.
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The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), which represents auto brands in Australia, highlighted the challenge in achieving that given EVs have accounted for less than eight per cent of new-vehicle sales so far this year.
“Carmakers are continuing to expand the range of low and zero emission vehicles, with more than 100 battery electric models and more than 50 plug-in hybrids now available in the Australian market,” said FCAI chief executive Tony Weber.
“However, BEVs make up less than eight per cent of new vehicle sales so far this year. This highlights that challenges still exist if we are to meet the targets set by government.”
The FCAI said the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) legislated by the federal government in January this year was “a key step in aligning Australia’s light vehicle fleet with national emissions reduction targets and manufacturers have responded strongly”.
But Mr Weber said the barriers to EV uptake – such as purchase price and charging infrastructure – need to be fully addressed if NVES is to successfully contribute to meeting the 2035 target.
“Consumers are not yet purchasing EVs at the rate that was expected, nor at the rate required to meet the emissions targets,” he said.
“Key to driving EV take-up is ensuring there is adequate charging infrastructure, reducing the total cost of ownership and that EVs meet the needs and desires of Australian motorists.
“Ensuring the availability of charging infrastructure is essential if the NVES is to make a difference in meeting climate targets.
“The legislated 2026 review will be critical to providing an early indication of how the NVES is operating, and how other policies and funding programs are influencing the market.”
The Victorian Automotive Chamber of Commerce (VACC) echoed the FCAI’s stance, warning that “without substantial and sustained investment in both charging infrastructure and industry capability, these ambitious targets risk becoming unattainable aspirations”.
“The scale of transformation required to meet the 2035 targets demands investment that matches the ambition,” said VACC CEO Peter Jones.
As part of its new emissions reduction goal, the federal government announced a $40 million investment in kerbside and DC fast-chargers, but both the VACC and FCAI said that falls well short of what is required to eliminate the charging and range anxiety.
“Forty million dollars, whilst welcome, is simply inadequate to deliver the comprehensive charging network needed across metropolitan, regional, and rural Australia,” said Mr Jones.
The VACC highlighted a “critical shortage in automotive service capacity that threatens to undermine the transition to electric vehicles” and pointed to the lack of EV-ready service centres and qualified technicians to meet even Victoria’s 2030 CO2 targets.
“The electric vehicle transition will only succeed if we have the skilled workforce and service infrastructure to support it,” said Mr Jones.
Key recommendations of the VACC include the extension of state and territory EV purchase incentives, the scaling up of a national EV charging network, the establishment of comprehensive training programs to upskill automotive technicians, and the provision of targeted assistance for workshops to adapt their facilities and expand their EV service capabilities.
“Australia’s automotive industry is committed to playing its part in achieving the nation’s climate goals,” said Mr Jones.
“However, ambitious targets must be supported by practical measures that enable both consumers and industry to navigate this transition successfully. Without this support, we risk setting targets we simply cannot achieve.”
Automakers have also expressed doubt as to whether EVs can reach 50 per cent market share in this period of time.
“Do we think EVs will play a role? One hundred per cent, but they’re not going to be 80 per cent of the market in three to five years,” Toyota Australia vice president of sales, marketing and franchise operations, Sean Hanley, told Australian media.
“In my opinion, maybe 30 [per cent], maybe a bit more, but that’s about where it’ll sit.”
The Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) praised the government’s 2035 CO2 target and called for action on heavy vehicle emissions to help meet it.
“Increasing EV uptake is the highway to Australia’s 2035 climate target,” said EVC chief executive Julie Delvecchio.
“To hit the 2035 target, one in every two cars sold within the decade must be electric – that means we need to shift gears and support more Australians to make the switch.
“The transport sector is the nation’s fastest growing source of emissions and is set to become the largest by 2030. So it’s encouraging to see the federal government recognises that electrifying transport is at the centre of reaching climate goals.
“The government’s new funding in support of the target for EV charging is a good step, because we know that charging is a critical part of driving EV adoption.
“[But] We must look beyond passenger cars – decarbonising heavy vehicles is just as critical. Australia should also invest in emerging technologies like vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid.
“Fewer emissions, cleaner air, quieter streets, fuel savings, and a more stable grid – that’s the power of more EVs on our roads. We look forward to working with the government to progress its ambition to encourage EV uptake and getting more everyday Australians to realise the benefits of driving electric.”
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